Hi, Greg. There are several different species of maple with different hardnesses. Hard Maple or Sugar Maple is really hard and is used for bowling alley lanes and pins and cutting boards. Soft Maple is similar to poplar in hardness. So the variety of maple can make a heck of a difference. Hard Maple and oak seem pretty similar in hardness.
The water based polys just do not stand up as well as oil based polys. They poly manufacturers have told me that. Of course, the water based polys dry very quickly and the installers love it. The oil based poly should be given a day between coats and the installers hate that and it is more succeptable to getting dust in the finish.
Personally, Hard Maple is a good choice but I would specify oil based poly. Don't forget to keep the dogs nails clipped as that will help your floors last a lot longer. Henry in MI