I have the same problem with my Craftsman opener.
I don't think it's binding, and I have two pieces
of evidence. 1) I live in Houston, I would think
the *hot* weather could cause as much shifting
as cold weather. But, the door always closes when its
hot, but get it below 60 degrees and it won't
close. 2) Just had a new garage door professionally
installed, with new tracks and everything, but
used the old opener. I still have the same problem
when its cold.
My theory is the cold weather is opening some
electrical connection somewhere. Perhaps the
infared blockage sensor??? The light on the
garage door usually flashes when I see this
problem. Just my 2 cents.