on how much water there is in the terra cotta, how far it sticks out over the opening, and how far above the opening it is. It depends on how hot a fire you build. It depends on how much flexing the thing has experienced so far, causing microfractures that would encourage moisture and future cracking.
In other words, I don't know. It might, it might not. Only one way to know for sure, build a fire under it.